Wind AlliesTier 2
at Regionals
decks
2
(4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
3-10-2
overall winrate
26.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.9%
avg ELO -4.9 per match
expected value
41.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1111
· median 1111
· range 1051–1172
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1171
Q3 1328
1638
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.9% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 43.9% | -3.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.1% | -2.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.7% | -4.1 |
| Water Allies | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Water Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Rile | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
